
Econometric
Analysis Of House Prices
And Mortgage Rates: Focusing On The UK Housing Market (2006)
The
focus of this study is to see how economic factors (Interest rates,
Inflation
rates and Gross National Income) affect the UK house prices. More
specifically,
how do the changes in house prices affect the UK Nationwide Mortgage
rates? The
author looked at quarterly data over the last 30 years from 1975 to
2004. In
order to gain an insight into the relationship between house prices and
the
economic factors mentioned above, the author will estimate models for
both UK
house prices and UK Nationwide Mortgage rates.The
findings of this study show that UK house prices are affected by many
factors,
and that there isn’t a strong enough factor that causes house
prices to
fluctuate on their own. It is found that several economic factors
collectively
cause distortions and fluctuations in the UK house prices. According to
the
models, Gross National Income influences house prices substantially.
Mortgage
rates were found to be dependent on interest rates more than UK house
prices.
Further analysis of the cointegration and sationarity of the data
suggested
that the models used were valid long-run models.
10,000
words – 70 pages in length
Excellent
use of literature
Excellent
use of finance and economic models
In
depth analysis
Excellent
piece of work
Section
1
Introduction
Section 2
Literature
Review
Section 3
Methodology
Data
Basic
Statistics and Testing
Section 4
Empirical
Analysis
Regression
Analysis
Stationarity
Testing
Unit
Root Testing
Differencing
Technique
Test
of Cointegration
Section
5
Conclusion
Future
Research
References
Appendices
Appendix
A – Regression 1 Data
Appendix
B – Regression 2 Data
Appendix
C – Regression 3 Data
Appendix
D – Regressions from Microfit
List
of Figures
UK
House Prices
from 1975 to 2004
UK
Interest Rates and the RPI
UK
House Prices (Y) and Gross National Income (X1)
Scatter
of House Prices (Y) and Gross National Income (X1)
Scatter
of House Prices (Y) and Interest Rates (X1)
Scatter
of House Prices (Y) and Inflation (X2)
Mortgage
rates (Y) and House Prices (X1)
Scatter
of Mortgage rates (Y) and House prices (X1)
Mortgage
rates (Y) and Interest rates (X2)
Scatter
of Mortgage rates (Y) and Interest rates (X2)
First
Difference (DLY) of Regression 1
Autocorrelation
Function of DLY
First
Difference (DLY) of Regression 3
Autocorrelation
Function of DLY
List
of Tables
Summary
of Statistics
Test
of Unit Root Hypothesis
ADF
Critical Values
Engle-Granger
Cointegration test
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