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Econometric Analysis Of House Prices And Mortgage Rates: Focusing On The UK Housing Market (2006)

Ref: fin0006

The focus of this study is to see how economic factors (Interest rates, Inflation rates and Gross National Income) affect the UK house prices. More specifically, how do the changes in house prices affect the UK Nationwide Mortgage rates? The author looked at quarterly data over the last 30 years from 1975 to 2004. In order to gain an insight into the relationship between house prices and the economic factors mentioned above, the author will estimate models for both UK house prices and UK Nationwide Mortgage rates.The findings of this study show that UK house prices are affected by many factors, and that there isn’t a strong enough factor that causes house prices to fluctuate on their own. It is found that several economic factors collectively cause distortions and fluctuations in the UK house prices. According to the models, Gross National Income influences house prices substantially. Mortgage rates were found to be dependent on interest rates more than UK house prices. Further analysis of the cointegration and sationarity of the data suggested that the models used were valid long-run models.
 
10,000 words – 70 pages in length
Excellent use of literature
Excellent use of finance and economic models
In depth analysis
Excellent piece of work

Section 1
Introduction


Section 2
Literature Review

Section 3
Methodology
Data
Basic Statistics and Testing

Section 4
Empirical Analysis
Regression Analysis
Stationarity Testing
Unit Root Testing
Differencing Technique
Test of Cointegration

Section 5
Conclusion
Future Research

References

Appendices
Appendix A – Regression 1 Data
Appendix B – Regression 2 Data
Appendix C – Regression 3 Data
Appendix D – Regressions from Microfit

List of Figures
UK House Prices from 1975 to 2004
UK Interest Rates and the RPI                                                                    
UK House Prices (Y) and Gross National Income (X1)
Scatter of House Prices (Y) and Gross National Income (X1)             
Scatter of House Prices (Y) and Interest Rates (X1)                            
Scatter of House Prices (Y) and Inflation (X2)                                     
Mortgage rates (Y) and House Prices (X1)                                          
Scatter of Mortgage rates (Y) and House prices (X1)                          
Mortgage rates (Y) and Interest rates (X2)                                           
Scatter of Mortgage rates (Y) and Interest rates (X2)                          
First Difference (DLY) of Regression 1                                               
Autocorrelation Function of DLY                                                        
First Difference (DLY) of Regression 3                                               
Autocorrelation Function of DLY

List of Tables
Summary of Statistics
Test of Unit Root Hypothesis
ADF Critical Values
Engle-Granger Cointegration test



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