Applying Economic Modelling to the Movement of Refugees (2019)
Refugees Movement Economics Modelling Dissertation – Over the past three decades a large number of people have been displaced from their home countries. In particular, the Syrian Civil War caused the largest historical migration of people to Europe. In this context, the effectiveness of the existing asylum policies has been questioned and new models were proposed. A literature review was conducted of the existing migration researches and identified studies that model refugees’ migration choices; studies that investigate the factors affecting such decisions; and studies using game theory framework to analyse interactions between destination countries’ legislative frameworks.
Drawing on the existing research, I designed a framework for modelling individual refugees’ migration choices and used a game theory framework that accounts for the strategic interactions among the legislative settings of the destination countries. The decision model postulates that the reasoning of a forcibly displaced person- where and for how long to seek asylum- is based on a lifetime-utility optimization. Interesting result of the analysis is that the most affected people from the conflict are not seeking asylum in a distant economically developed country.
The game theory analysis of the issue showed that that when choosing a restrictive asylum policy, the countries are trading off the benefits of the lower refugee population for the higher investments for deterrence procedures. The combination of the two approaches could be used by policy makers to achieve better understanding of the refugees decision-making process and the results of the strategic interaction between countries providing asylum.
If these two aspects are fully embraced more efficient outcomes will be achieved from the asylum legislation. Finally, I believe that the framework could be used in undergraduate university level to provide the students with an interesting application to the theoretical concepts studied in Mico, Macro and Game theory.
- 8,000 words – 34 pages in length
- Excellent use of literature
- Excellent analysis of subject area
- Well written throughout
- Ideal for economics students
1 – Introduction
Introduction to the 2015 Refugees Crisis in Europe
2 – Methodology and Objectives
3 – Literature Review
4 – Modelling Refugee Destination Choice
Temporary or Permanent migration to Lebanon, Jordan or Turkey
Asylum-seeking in Europe
5 – A Game Theory Analysis
The importance of supra-national common action in Europe
6 – Discussion and Conclusions
Advantages and Limitations